The United States economy has grown for nearly a decade, its second-longest run ever without a recession, and investors are anxious about whether it can keep going.
A month into the new year, they have plenty to worry about. The lift to corporate profits from the Trump administration’s tax cuts is waning, the United States is in the middle of a risky trade war with China, growth in some of the world’s biggest economies is slowing, and interest rates are off record lows.
The nation’s longest government shutdown, which ended Friday, has made the picture murkier. The Commerce Department, home to the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was closed during the shutdown. That means reports on the gross domestic product, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, business investment and retail sales have been delayed.
While 800,00 government workers and contractors went without pay, most economists do not expect lasting damage to the economy from the shutdown.
Still, it probably hurt business and consumer spending and, in the short term, will affect economic data released in the coming weeks. That will require investors to parse the reports to determine what was a temporary hit from the shutdown and what is evidence of a slowing economy.
Here’s a rough guide to the elements of the economy that investors are focused on and the data that helps shape their views.
Data releases: Jobs report, Jolts, initial jobless claims
To investors, there is perhaps no more important economic release each month than the jobs report. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate — keeping prices stable and Americans employed — and this report offers insight into both factors.
On Friday, the government will release its monthly hiring and unemployment figures for January. Because furloughed government employees will receive back pay, the shutdown is unlikely to affect payrolls but could push the unemployment rate higher.
There’s another important figure from the report to watch: wage growth. The average hourly earnings for workers had grown slowly during the recovery from the financial crisis, but has ticked up in recent months.
That comes with its own complications. Historically when wage growth is strong, inflation picks up. The Fed chairman, Jerome H. Powell, and his two immediate predecessors raised questions about the connection this month, but a big jump in wage growth this year could make investors nervous that it will lead to inflation or push the Fed to raise interest rates.
Investors will keep an eye on two other labor market releases: the monthly Jolts (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report and the weekly initial jobless claims. The two reports offer indications of job vacancies and layoffs.
Data releases: Personal consumption expenditures, Consumer Price Index
There are two main measures of inflation: the Consumer Price Index and the personal consumption expenditures, or P.C.E., price index, which the Fed has indicated is its preferred measure of inflation. After rising above the Fed’s target of 2 percent earlier last year, both have pulled back in recent months.
In December, the Consumer Price Index rose 1.9 percent annually because of lower oil prices. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the index climbed 2.2 percent.
The recent low readings have helped reduce some of the pressure on the Fed to raise rates. That will change, though, if inflation begins to pick up.
Rising rates can hurt stocks in two ways. They can push up borrowing costs for companies and consumers. That, in turn, may prompt them to spend less, which can crimp the economy. Higher rates also make the returns from bonds more attractive than stocks and cause investors to shift some of their money to bonds from stocks.
Data releases: Retail sales, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the American economy. It has remained strong in recent months, thanks to lower oil prices and the tax cuts enacted at the end of 2017. Retail sales, which capture consumer spending on a wide variety of purchases like cars, furniture, meals, clothing, health care products and electronics, surged in November, and the Johnson Redbook index of retail sales at department and chain stores has remained strong.
The question in the new year is whether that will hold up. Market volatility that has shrunk 401(k) balances could hurt. The housing market is also showing signs of weakness, and that may dampen consumer spirits.
Those factors along with the government shutdown did hit consumer confidence in January. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to slipped to its lowest level of Mr. Trump’s presidency.
A pullback in consumer purchases would have an impact far beyond the retailers, affecting companies that provide the parts and products sold online and in stores.
Data releases: National Federation of Independent Business small-business optimism index, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes
Business spending on long-term investments like buildings, factories, equipment and technology is crucial to a strong economy. It picked up last year.
Will that trend continue in the new year? Already the recent market volatility, a swing in oil prices, the trade war, and concerns about the strength of the economies in the United States and abroad appear to have caused executives to hold off on such investments. Orders for durable goods — products designed to last at least three years — weakened in second half of 2018.
The National Federation of Independent Business small-business optimism index also hit a 14-month low in December, and the number of the survey’s respondents expecting to expand their business declined.
Another clue that things aren’t as hot as they once were came from the Institute for Supply Management last month. Its indexes of purchasing managers measure activity across the manufacturing and service sectors of the United States economy. A reading above 50 means activity across the sector is expanding, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction. Both indexes are well above 50, but in December the manufacturing index posted its largest one-month drop since the last recession.
Data releases: Existing home sales, new home sales, pending home sales
Given the importance of housing to the United States economy — it is the biggest driver of both wealth and indebtedness for most families — its struggles have added to worries about the sustainability of the economic expansion.
A combination of higher costs, mortgage rates and home prices has rippled through the housing market since last spring. Sales of new single-family homes fell for five straight months through October, the last month of data available because of the shutdown. Existing home sales, which is released by the National Association of Realtors, account for 90 percent of all home sales, and last year was the weakest year for such sales since 2015. And residential investment subtracted from economic growth in each of the first three quarters of 2018.B:
九龙图库香港管家婆彩图【什】【么】【都】【先】【别】【说】，【先】【恭】【喜】【一】【下】【自】【己】，【完】【结】【撒】【花】！ 【虽】【然】【很】【难】【看】，【也】【很】【无】【奈】，【但】【还】【是】【坚】【持】【下】【来】【了】，【不】【到】【一】【年】【的】【时】【间】，【能】【写】【一】【百】【三】【十】【多】【万】，【光】【凭】【字】【数】，【我】【就】【觉】【得】【我】【这】【个】【扑】【街】【小】【透】【明】【很】【了】【不】【起】【了】。 【先】【给】【自】【己】【点】【个】【赞】！ 【然】【后】【就】【是】【感】【谢】【各】【位】【观】【看】【的】【小】【伙】【伴】【们】，【这】【段】【时】【间】【的】【默】【默】【陪】【伴】，【十】【分】【感】【谢】！ 【虽】【然】【评】【论】【不】【多】，【但】【我】【有】
【对】【方】【做】【这】【些】【事】【无】【非】【就】【是】【想】【存】【心】【和】【自】【己】【过】【不】【去】。【总】【之】【今】【天】【这】【件】【事】，【她】【是】【绝】【对】【不】【会】【这】【么】【算】【了】【的】。 “【打】【听】【清】【楚】【没】【有】，【除】【了】【李】【清】【瑶】【之】【外】，【待】【会】【儿】【还】【有】【谁】【要】【来】？”【张】【雪】【尔】【闭】【着】【眼】【睛】，【同】【时】【询】【问】【旁】【边】【站】【着】【的】**。 “【问】【了】【问】【了】。”【突】【然】【被】【点】【名】，**【立】【即】【说】【道】：“【据】【说】【是】【个】【才】【得】【了】【新】【人】【奖】【的】【小】【姑】【娘】，【好】【像】【才】【出】【道】【不】【久】。【我】【问】【了】
【先】【知】【会】【这】【么】【做】【的】【目】【的】【很】【明】【显】，【就】【是】【要】【尽】【可】【能】【让】【别】【人】【知】【道】，【苍】【浩】【跟】【底】【波】【拉】【结】【婚】【了】，【进】【一】【步】【的】，【先】【知】【会】【跟】【血】【狮】【雇】【佣】【兵】【结】【成】【永】【久】【性】【同】【盟】。 【毫】【无】【疑】【问】，【先】【知】【会】【的】【目】【的】【达】【到】【了】，【整】【个】【地】【下】【世】【界】【都】【被】【轰】【动】【了】。 【尽】【管】【地】【下】【世】【界】【各】【方】【势】【力】，【早】【就】【知】【道】【苍】【浩】【跟】【先】【知】【会】【关】【系】【复】【杂】，【却】【还】【是】【没】【想】【到】，【先】【知】【会】【竟】【然】【把】【女】【先】【知】【嫁】【给】【了】【苍】【浩】。
“【搞】【了】【半】【天】【原】【来】【这】【些】【水】【果】【都】【是】【给】【她】【的】，【我】【说】【怎】【么】【假】【惺】【惺】【在】【这】【装】【好】【人】，【还】【一】【口】【一】【个】【替】【保】【姆】【承】【担】【一】【切】，【一】【副】【救】【世】【主】【的】【样】【子】。＂ 【丽】【丽】【小】【声】【的】【嘟】【囔】【完】【用】【眼】【睛】【瞄】【了】【一】【眼】【陆】【斯】【琪】。 “【不】【碍】【事】，【本】【来】【这】【就】【不】【是】【你】【的】【错】，【去】【忙】【吧】。＂ 【陆】【斯】【琪】【似】【乎】【没】【有】【看】【到】【丽】【丽】【厌】【恶】【自】【己】【的】【目】【光】，【她】【依】【然】【平】【静】【和】【保】【姆】【交】【流】【着】。 “【是】，【陆】【小】【姐】
【地】【下】【海】【洋】。 【趁】【着】【拾】【蓝】【蒂】【不】【在】，【拾】【七】【偷】【偷】【摸】【摸】【跑】【了】【下】【来】，【原】【因】【不】【宜】【有】【他】，【阴】【鬼】【幡】【本】【就】【是】【她】【废】【了】【好】【大】【的】【力】【气】【才】【搞】【到】【手】【的】【东】【西】，【怎】【么】【能】【一】【直】【就】【放】【在】【地】【下】【海】【洋】。 【当】【然】【是】【放】【在】【自】【己】【身】【上】【才】【最】【是】【安】【全】【的】。 【奈】【何】，【祖】【桑】【那】【个】【死】【变】【态】【近】【日】【就】【像】【是】【故】【意】【跟】【她】【过】【不】【去】【一】【般】，【总】【也】【盯】【着】【她】【的】【行】【动】，【搞】【得】【她】【都】【莫】【名】【有】【些】【畏】【首】【畏】【尾】【了】【起】【来】九龙图库香港管家婆彩图【沈】【清】【水】【发】【烧】【烧】【了】【两】【天】，【都】【是】【林】【茵】【茵】【在】【照】【顾】，【虽】【然】【她】【必】【须】【紧】【急】【抱】【佛】【脚】【看】【笔】【记】，【但】【还】【是】【牺】【牲】【时】【间】【照】【顾】【她】【了】。 【可】【能】【就】【是】【因】【为】【这】【样】【被】【照】【顾】【了】【两】【天】，【所】【以】【第】【三】【天】【的】【时】【候】，【林】【茵】【茵】【稍】【微】【的】【神】【情】【不】【对】【劲】，【沈】【清】【水】【就】【看】【出】【来】【了】。 “【你】【有】【事】？”【她】【合】【上】【书】，【看】【向】【林】【茵】【茵】。 【对】【方】【只】【敷】【衍】【的】【摇】【了】【一】【下】【头】，“【没】【事】。【你】【还】【有】【别】【的】【笔】【记】【么】
【第】【二】【节】【临】【近】【下】【课】，【傅】【然】【布】【置】【完】【作】【业】，【乔】【锦】【书】【醒】【了】。 【睫】【毛】【在】【寄】【知】【许】【的】【手】【心】【扇】【风】，【痒】【痒】【的】，【让】【他】【忍】【不】【住】【握】【手】，【掐】【了】【个】【满】【怀】。 【乔】【锦】【书】【睁】【眼】，【却】【看】【不】【见】，【有】【点】【慌】【张】，【眨】【眼】【的】【频】【率】【更】【高】【了】。 【没】【睡】【醒】，【在】【睡】【会】。 【诶】【诶】【诶】，【是】【谁】【掐】【我】【的】【脸】。 【轻】【点】【轻】【点】。 【她】【挣】【脱】【却】【被】【束】【缚】。 【寄】【知】【许】【察】【觉】【到】【她】【睡】【醒】【了】，【轻】【咳】【了】
【玉】【华】【阁】。 “【姑】【娘】【这】【边】【请】。” “【哦】” 【被】【小】【宫】【女】【一】【提】【醒】，【眼】【睛】【被】【四】【周】【的】【建】【筑】【和】【来】【往】【的】【人】【震】【惊】【到】【的】【苑】【伊】【雪】【这】【才】【回】【过】【神】【来】，【跟】【着】【小】【宫】【女】【继】【续】【往】【前】【走】，【脸】【上】【却】【是】【满】【满】【的】【彷】【徨】【和】【慌】【乱】。 “【姑】，【姑】【娘】，【请】【问】【这】【里】【是】【什】【么】【地】【方】【啊】？” “【姑】【娘】【唤】【奴】【婢】【青】【兰】【即】【可】。” 【宫】【女】【青】【兰】【盈】【盈】【施】【了】【一】【礼】，【接】【着】【对】【苑】【伊】【雪】【解】【释】【道】，
【是】【的】，【这】【本】【书】【就】【写】【到】【这】【里】【了】。 【这】【本】【书】【的】【成】【绩】【一】【目】【了】【然】，【不】【用】【过】【多】【的】【赘】【述】，【之】【所】【以】【发】【这】【个】【单】【章】【是】【因】【为】【感】【觉】【对】【不】【起】【那】【些】【已】【经】【花】【了】【书】【币】【的】【朋】【友】，【真】【的】【很】【惭】【愧】。 【为】【了】【弥】【补】【书】【友】【朋】【友】，【请】【加】【扣】【群】：【陆】【玖】【伍】【壹】【陆】【陆】【陆】【玖】【零】。【我】【会】【在】【群】【里】【发】【红】【包】【作】【为】【弥】【补】。 【唉】，【真】【的】【很】【对】【不】【起】。 【但】【正】【如】【最】【后】【一】【章】【的】【名】【字】，【这】【不】【是】【终】【点】，